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System Dynamics and Modeling
The
field of systems dynamics is growing rapidly, especially since
popularized by Peter Senge of MIT in his book The Fifth Discipline
and its successors. One reason for this growth is the increasing
realization of how really powerful is this strategic way of thinking about and
assessing our businesses and the world in which they exist, especially
with its growing complexity.
Another reason is the availability of increasingly friendlier and more powerful simulation software tools.
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Such
tools enable the analyst, in collaboration with domain experts and
policy makers, to dynamically model hypothesized sets of interacting
factors, all interacting in very complex ways. Static models such as
spreadsheets simply cannot emulate these complex dynamic
interrelationships.
Yet
another advantage of these tools is the learning that takes place as the
organization thinks about, hypothesizes, and models dynamic
relationships that affect its world and discovers the unintended
consequences of its own behavior. Many students of this field argue that
it is the learning that takes place that is the most significant
value for the organization. Michael Shrage, MIT Media Lab Research
Associate and a long term student of prototyping, modeling and
simulation, in his new book, Serious Play, stresses his growing
conviction (coupled with research evidence) that organizations that
routinely use models and prototypes as a way of business have a
substantial strategic advantage because they improve the organizational
learning and understanding concerning the world of the organization. In
fact, he considers it a core competency. The model or prototype also
creates “shared space” around which the organization can collaborate
and learn, thereby improving and even accelerating its learning
dynamics.
Furthermore,
researchers in this field have long known that the human mind cannot
anticipate the behavior of even very simple dynamic systems! Even simple
systems often behave in counterintuitive ways. Consequently, we see the growing
use of, and dependence upon, simulation modeling to aid in explaining or
going so far as predicting the behavior of key components, (e.g., our
market, or our own market position), of our business environment.
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Simulation
modeling has not extended as far into the health care industry as it has
into business and industry. Nevertheless, its potential is great. It can
be used for econometric analyses (and has) of assessing disease control
strategies, and combining disease control modeling with econometric
analysis as well as its application in all the other business uses to
which industry has put modeling.
Simulation
software is also capable of modeling discrete processes used throughout
health care (e.g., patient flow, claims processing, laboratory flow,
etc.). This enables saving significant amounts of time and money (and
arguments) over what is the best process structure. Coupling process
modeling with lean thinking (streamlining) gives a powerful edge on
forecasting process behavior and determining the best structure prior to
the investment in implementing the changes.
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